Taught in a three (3) day format, this course focuses on the concepts and principles of statistics as it applies to the petroleum system, estimation under uncertainty, EUR assessment given success, and chance of success for prospects. During this course, an integrated team exercise is available, as well as sections on performance tracking and value of information.
This course focuses primarily on the geotechnical concepts and principles of estimating under uncertainty, especially as related to the measurement of and communication about your prospects. We make use of (1) realistic games and exercises to illustrate principles and mechanics of estimating methods; and (2) analytical procedures involved with uncertainty and risk associated with modern petroleum exploration. The course identifies fallacies and unintended consequences of many corporate procedures for conducting petroleum exploration, and shows explorers how to get better at what they do.
- Dealing with Uncertainty
- Estimating Ultimate Recovery
- Chance of Success and Expected Value
- RMAG Exercise Introduction
- RMAG Solution
- Value of Information
- Play Analysis
- Portfolio Analysis (focusing on the exercise insights about tradeoffs)
- Performance Tracking