Quantification of Geological Risk

22-24 September 2014
Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Who Should Attend
Engineers and geoscientists involved in Exploration Risk Analysis.

Upon completion of this course, participants will:

  • Know how to use estimating methods to make better and more realistic prospect predictions
  • Learn how to analyze risk and uncertainty in their exploration projects
  • Develop performance tracking methods to hone their estimation skills and progress
  • Understand the importance of VOI (Value of Information)
Course Content

Taught in a three (3) day format, this course focuses on the concepts and principles of statistics as it applies to the petroleum system, estimation under uncertainty, EUR assessment given success, and chance of success for prospects. During this course, an integrated team exercise is available, as well as sections on performance tracking and value of information.

This course focuses primarily on the geotechnical concepts and principles of estimating under uncertainty, especially as related to the measurement of and communication about your prospects. We make use of (1) realistic games and exercises to illustrate principles and mechanics of estimating methods; and (2) analytical procedures involved with uncertainty and risk associated with modern petroleum exploration. The course identifies fallacies and unintended consequences of many corporate procedures for conducting petroleum exploration, and shows explorers how to get better at what they do.

Course Outline
Day 1:
  • Introduction
  • Statistics
  • Dealing with Uncertainty
Day 2:
  • Estimating Ultimate Recovery
  • Chance of Success and Expected Value
  • RMAG Exercise Introduction
Day 3:
  • RMAG Solution
  • Value of Information
  • Play Analysis
  • Portfolio Analysis (focusing on the exercise insights about tradeoffs)
  • Performance Tracking
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel
Calle 113 # 7-65
Bogotá, D.C. 094861
+57 1 6578700
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel

Calle 113 # 7-65
Bogotá, D.C. 094861

Check back soon for room block information.

Expires on
24 September, 2014

No refunds for cancellations after August 18, 2014.


Gary Gary Citron Rose & Associates, LLP
Vicky Vicky Kroh Registrar, Education Department +1 918 560 2650 +1 918 560 2678
Debbi Debbi Boonstra Education Manager +1 918 560-2630

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