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22584 01 September, 2015
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Cognitive bias, in its many manifestations, is the major cause of geotechnical overestimation and faulty probability forecasts in petroleum geoscience. The five most prevalent cognitive biases in petroleum E&P are: Confirmation Bias; Overconfidence; False Analogs; Anchoring; and Motivational Bias. They are caused by premature selection of theory, personal hubris, lack of perspective, lack of imagination, laziness, and excessive self-interest. Important influences include the existing organizational reward system, economic pressure for objective geotechnical results, and the anticipated consequences of project reviews and evaluations. In fact, the field of E&P Risk Analysis emerged during the 1980s to help identify and reduce bias in assessing the value of new plays and prospects. Companies that routinely utilize disciplined methods of Risk Analysis tend to deliver on their E&P promises.

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Although the first image that most people have of oil and natural gas development is a drilling rig, the actual process includes many additional steps involving dozens of scientist, engineers and technicians over as long as a decade.

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These slides contain the following sections: Industry Outlook, Careers/Jobs in the Geosciences, How to Get Started, Q&A Preparation Material and Additional Content.

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