First, I review the history of oil shocks or events that caused a significant decrease in the price of oil. Specifically, energy shocks in the mid 1980’s, in the late 1990’s, 2008 - 2009, and the one we still recovering from which began in late 2014. All of these events resulted in an oil price decrease of over 50%. Each one is slightly different from a cause and impact standpoint but there are also similarities. Especially between the middle 1980’s and today.

Second, I will discuss the state of the Energy Industry today. Supply and demand, climate, global reserve replacement and investment levels. The short story here is that supply and demand are on a knife edge and will lead to short term volatility in oil price. In this section, I will also discuss climate because of its global impact. Many companies today are working toward producing cleaner & greener energy. Additionally on climate, even using the Paris agreement we will still be using hydrocarbons for energy out beyond 2040. Current investment levels will be discussed as well as reserve replacement, since we are not replacing the reserves we produce by a wide margin and investment levels continue to be low. There are of course big impacts to these factors and I will go deeper into that during my talk.

Lastly, I discuss my view of the future. Are we in a normal commodity cycle or are we seeing structural changes in the energy business Is This a Normal Business Cycle, Or Are We Seeing Structural Changes to the Energy Business? There are things to consider that may lead some people to believe that we are actually seeing structural change. I will discuss four factors as to why structural change may indeed be happening right now. Additionally, I will talk about demand forecasts, under investment & its consequences and with a potential supply challenge going forward.