In order to support the energy transition, optimizing exploration and production from complex stratigraphic-diagenetic conventional and unconventional plays remains highly important. At the same time, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) poses new technological challenges that will impact both the industry and academia for decades to come. Both areas require a robust approach to the prediction and risking of reservoir heterogeneity and seal integrity. Currently, prediction and risking rely primarily on stochastic geostatistical approaches, which have seen an impressive development over the last few decades. However, exploration and production from complex plays as well as CO₂ storage in depleted reservoirs and saline aquifers have revealed higher levels of uncertainty in geostatistical reservoir models.
Reasons include:
• Statistical models do not fully capitalize on the geological information available
• Prediction and risk assessment usually apply a single statistical approach
• Different geostatistical approaches produce varying predictive models
• Surface geological studies (analogues) have proven highly pronounced rock heterogeneity
• Multiple, concurrent processes with various feedback mechanisms control reservoir quality
• Physical-chemical properties of CO₂ in its various states differ from hydrocarbons
In order to meet the current and future challenges associated with subsurface exploration, production and storage, the industry needs to develop new, additional approaches for modelling reservoir, seal, and source rocks. The key requirement for reducing uncertainty and risk is a rigorous understanding and quantification of geological processes and controls.
Fundamental research in geological process-based forward numerical modeling started in the 1980s in academia and industry. However, industry has only recently started to more widely utilize process-based modeling. The initial focus has been on depositional modeling using diffusion, Navier-Stokes, and hybrid geometric approaches, but more recently a diverse range of approaches is being adopted. They include machine learning, fuzzy logic, cellular automata and various other reduced-complexity modeling approaches that produce output information on petrofacies, depositional environment, and textural porosity. Forward modelling is also being applied to diagenetic processes using reaction-transport modeling (RTM) or reduced complexity proxy rules. Geomechanical modeling relies on finite element or discrete fracture network modeling based on post-burial mechanical stratigraphy and local/regional stress patterns. Geological process-based forward modeling has shown highly promising results for reservoir quality, seal integrity and sweet spot prediction in complex play and initially also storage settings.
Many challenges persist, including:
• Calibration of numerical input parameters specific to age, climate and structural settings
• The effective use of physical experiments and outcrop-reservoir analogue studies for model verification
• Automated input parameter optimization
• Multi-scale process-based models from basin to play and intra-well scale
• Linking and integrating modeling approaches for depositional, diagenetic and structural modeling
• Integrating textural, diagenetic and fault/fracture-related poroperm models
• Sensitivity analysis and quantitative risk assessment of multiple modeling realizations
• Effective implementation of process-based model results in standard and future industry workflows
• Data conditioning
The 2nd edition of the workshop builds on the results of the 1st edition, which was held on May 23-25, 2022 in Abu Dhabi. It is expected to review and discuss technology developments in geological process-based forward modeling achieved during the last 2 years. Perspectives for future technology developments and implementation in industry workflows will be updated and or adapted as deemed necessary. The additional focus on CO₂ storage and other sustainability-related application for geological process-based forward modeling will considerably extend the scope of the 2nd edition of the workshop.
The workshop will bring together invited experts and interested researchers from both industry and academia. We will concentrate on all technical aspects related to geological process-based forward modeling. Six sessions spread over a period of 3 days will be dedicated to key challenges, finishing with a concluding session to define the best practical way forward.