For those who can remember the first Iraq war, the sudden escalation and conflict came as a shock to many Americans, who had not seen the United States engage in armed conflict in decades. Overnight, CNN became “the war channel,” chronicling all the events that took place during the short-lived conflict.
The stated reason for the war was to stand up for a sovereign nation, people and its economy, but a large part of global oil supply was threatened by Iraq’s invasion of the sovereign nation of Kuwait, which invited much of the political criticism that the war was only about oil.
Today, that conflict is a distant memory and many people in the West don’t give this and the subsequent events much thought. Most young professionals in industry were not born and did not experience the devastation nor understand how many people were displaced or perished. (But I’m sure my friends in Kuwait have a very different perspective on the effect it has had on their society and global worldview.)
In sharp contrast, global tensions between nations today and the resultant need to consider the security of the energy supply and critical minerals is so constant that past events fade into the background. Public dialogue routinely emphasizes energy security and for all countries it has become an area of acute concern and focus. These metals and the energy to process and manufacture them are critical to building and maintaining national security, the economy, and infrastructure.
I noted in my column in December that “energy is the economy,” and given the growth projections, more energy will be required to not only sustain the current economy but also enable it to grow for future generations to flourish.
The Looming Skills Gap
The question is … How will this happen? What are the skills needed and who are the people who will step into this arena, not only to sustain current energy sources, but to develop new ideas and technologies to meet the requirements needed to maintain energy sources and security?
Many geoscience programs have either been shuttered or dramatically downsized (a situation being addressed by a recently-launched AAPG initiative). Whether low enrollments should be blamed on policy changes by governments or by university administrators, societal pressure to decarbonize, or limited funding is all up for debate, but what isn’t controversial is that geoscience is the backbone of the energy industry. And, while many people believe AI will make up the difference by expediting this technical discipline, it most certainly will not replace it. This will be the focus of the upcoming International Petroleum Technical Conference in Dubai, which I will attend, and I endeavor to take advantage of the opportunity to discuss future geoscience training.
It’s worth noting that geoscience and earth science are non-unique. Geoscience and earth processes are often anisotropic with many unknown variables. In virtually every sector of industry and science, we build models to distill or simplify problems and provide a context for analysis using high-power computing. The advances in computing have been exponential, improving the speed and size of the analysis, but as the renowned statistician George Box noted, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” I fear we are putting more trust in computer analytics rather than a sober thoughtfulness and understanding of where models lead and the voracity of the data that create them.
So how do we influence the path forward?
Fundamentals are still the key. A solid foundation in the principles of structure, sedimentology, petrology, mineralogy, paleontology, and geochemistry is essential. It isn’t necessary to be an expert in all these disciplines, but a basic understanding is critical as geoscience is about integrative thinking: taking disparate pieces of information and weaving thoughts or ideas on new ways to approach problems. This is what universities must continue to teach at the undergraduate level.
In addition to promoting the fundamentals, we need to help facilitate AAPG members’ contributions and provide opportunities to be involved in graduate students’ training. An outside adviser with decades of experience can be a valuable and influential voice outside of students’ instructors and peers, whom they can use as a sounding board, as someone who has been through the process they are beginning to undertake. I also believe we need to leverage AI technology and use it as a tool to help train the next generation of geoscientists in the skill of critical thinking and observation. New AI technology can be used to capture decades of sound geoscience work and provide an easy way to access and present these findings.
Going forward, I hope to engage the AAPG Foundation, membership and alumni at as many universities as possible to begin to make inroads into geoscience curricula and highlight the different divisions within AAPG – the Energy Minerals Division, Division of Environmental Geosciences, and the Division of Professional Affairs – as testament to the wide diversity of industry sectors and employment opportunities encompassed by the geosciences. AAPG has a wide range of offerings and a broad fund of knowledge in our membership that could partner with universities and help guide their geoscience curricula. We can lead the world in this endeavor.
Like many others, our industry has a history of cyclic ups and downs. The problem this creates for us is that students at universities look at these cycles and question why they would pursue a career that could last fewer than three to five years before they are made redundant by a merger or downsizing. The COVID-era media blitz, demanding decarbonization, has dominated much of social media and many times is not factually complete. Until recently few energy transition advocates, counted the cost to the consumer and to the world, which is why many nations have serious concerns about energy security and future economic growth.
The Army We Need
Where do we stand? The pipeline of geoscience students is sparse, currently, and industry is chasing fewer candidates. This is “the army that we have” but it is not the one we are going to need for the future. Energy security has become a global focus. Petroleum demand has only increased, but there are also critical minerals, mining of metals, environmental assessments and impacts that must be done in unison if the world is going to continue to flourish and bring more people out of energy poverty.
AAPG will continue to work toward building bridges with universities and we would welcome members and alumni partnering with us to make these inroads. I will be reaching out to schools and geoscience programs to find areas of collaboration and ways in which students and faculty can be supported by AAPG. In the era of downsizing and budget shortfalls, a small army of volunteers can have a big impact.