In a recent conversation with a friend, we discussed his role working in the hospital as an internal medicine doctor. I’ve found many similarities between medicine and geoscience regarding scientific investigation, critical thinking and decision making. His decisions have immediate impact on human life. In the oil industry, there is a correlation, perhaps, to health, safety and environmental concerns, preventing personal injury or a catastrophic accident – factors that must always be considered in our assessment of operations.
My friend discussed the various cases he sees, many of which are common and treated easily. However, there are difficult cases that require critical thinking, research, innovation and the systematic elimination of multiple working hypotheses. A common phrase among doctors is, “When you hear hoofbeats think horses not zebras!”
In other words, what is the most likely scenario (Occam’s razor)? Or in his case, diagnose for horses first and then consider what to do if it’s a zebra.
I don’t know where prices will land, but in this
industry, history has demonstrated difficult
circumstances lead to the greatest innovations. We
live in a society and work in an industry that has a
high percentage of smart, agile and innovative people.
Our Most Likely Scenario
As we proceed into Q4 and the beginning of 2026 there is much speculation regarding an oversupply of oil and concern that prices might be low for longer than anticipated. Presently (at the time of writing) WTI is at $61.75, up from $57.33 earlier in the week. The increased production from OPEC+ has fueled concern for L48 operators and their ability to continue to grow production. However, many analysts note that post-COVID, we are at the bottom of the cycle and global demand isn’t going away.
I don’t know where prices will land, but in this industry, history has demonstrated difficult circumstances lead to the greatest innovations. We live in a society and work in an industry that has a high percentage of smart, agile and innovative people. We might not like the changes that occur, but I continue to be amazed at the innovation of our industry and its ability to find a way to get things done – despite difficult circumstances.
“Geology rules the day and it’s the biggest driver of well performance that we can see.” – Kaes Van’t Hof, CEO Diamondback Energy
A forward-looking AAPG membership would do well to heed Mr. Van’t Hof’s advice. Geology touches all forms of energy and that puts geoscientists in the position to define new and better ways of finding new energy resources and become more relevant in industry and dialogue regarding the future of energy.
I have heard some members believe AAPG should shrink, specialize and focus exclusively on hydrocarbon extraction. I like to call it the ‘P’-focused members of AAPG. From my perspective, that looks like a one-trick pony with a club mentality rather than a robust and engaged organization. The growth in geothermal and need for key minerals suggests there is more for our membership to bring to the world as new forms of energy are developed. We should have the “P” discussion among our membership and perhaps realize that an “us-versus -them” organization isn’t sustainable. A quick look at the current demographics of our membership and membership performance that Tom Wilker points out in his column this month would indicate that kind of approach leads to extinction. Our membership is aging, and we need to bring younger geoscientists into AAPG – just like many of us did when we began our geoscience careers.
An Appeal to AAPG Members
When I am seeking advice or counsel, I have found it helpful to articulate my “ask” up front so as to be concise in the discussion. So, to the membership I have given five “asks” below:
1) Get involved in the Imperial Barrel Award – be a mentor, adviser, participant or a financial donor.
2) Submit technical work to region, section, ICE or IMAGE meetings; I frequently hear that there is not enough geology content. Be part of that solution and present your work.
3) Participate in local societies and gatherings – networking is the best part of membership.
4) Support AAPG either with technical or financial resources – the fund of knowledge in our membership is vast and there are a lot of new geoscientists who need to learn what experience has taught us. The new AAPG Academy is a great way for members to share their knowledge and experience.
5) Offer suggestions to the Executive Committee. I hear my fair share of complaints, which comes with the territory, but choosing to be helpful and collaborative is far more powerful. Changes to bylaws and committees can be proposed by any member, the House of Delegates or the Executive Committee.
It is my hope that we continue to grow as an organization and find ways to bring membership from around the world into the organization. The membership math tells us that time is not on our side and that today’s students are tomorrow’s members.