Brazil has committed to reducing its emissions by 59 percent to 67 percent from 2005 levels by 2035, a decrease of 1.5 to 1.7 gigatonnes. Source: Rystad Energy Research and Analysis, Brazil’s Energy Horizon – COP 30 Special Report, November 2024
In November, 60,0000 people converged on Belém, Brazil for the 30th session of the United Nations Conference of the Parties, or COP 30, as it is better known: the annual climate summit where nearly 200 countries meet to negotiate and agree on actions to combat climate change.
The event turned global attention to how the Brazil’s energy system could reconcile climate ambition, economic growth, and energy security.
Belém, a city of 1 million people located in the heart of the Amazon, was a significant and symbolic choice for the world’s most biodiverse country and largest economy in Latin America.
Brazil brings a unique set of structural characteristics to the global climate debate: With an annual gross domestic product of (U.S.) $2.2 trillion, Brazil is one of few economic giants whose energy mix already includes more than 25 percent renewable sources.
The country also has a conspicuously different carbon footprint than other emerging economies. In 2023, fossil fuels represented approximately 20 percent of overall emissions, while land use and forestry account for 40 percent of emissions, and agriculture 30 percent, according to Rystad Energy analysis.
Brazil also has a rapidly growing services sector and is a global leader in mining, agriculture, manufacturing, and forestry. The sectors frequently took center stage during complex and contested discussions at COP30.
Experiencing COP
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at COP30 in November. Photo licensed by Shutterstock.
Renata Jaffar, senior vice president of business development in Latin America for Rystad Energy, attended the event in Belém.
She described the atmosphere as “intense, highly engaged and pragmatic.”
“What stood out to me was how democratic the discussions felt, a wide range of voices were present and heard, from indigenous communities to countries articulating their priorities in very distinct ways, yet all contributing toward a collective objective. Being in that environment was powerful; there is something almost magnetic about the energy of a place where so many perspectives converge around shared global challenges,” she said.
Attending COP was a great way for Jaffar to finish her first year with Rystad Energy, a Norway-based energy research and business intelligence company that provides data, analysis and insights to help clients navigate the global energy system and make investment decisions. The experience also reinforced the importance of connecting global climate discussions with rigorous, system-level energy analysis.
Jaffar works with clients in Latin America and values the strategic nature of her role.
“I’m constantly connecting macro trends with very practical business decisions, whether that’s supporting an operator’s investment strategy, a bank’s risk assessment, or a government’s long-term planning.”
Brazil’s Energy Horizon
Jaffar shared Rystad Energy’s November 2025 publication, Brazil’s Energy Horizon, Leading Low carbon growth, while empowering energy security, a special report prepared ahead of COP30, with AAPG to support the broader discussion around Brazil’s energy outlook.
This report takes a view of Brazil’s energy trajectory up to the year 2040 and asks how far the country can push decarbonization while expanding its economy, meeting rising energy demand and making use of its natural resource base.
Rystad Energy Research and Analysis, Brazil’s Energy Horizon – COP 30 Special Report, November 2024
Key report findings include:
- Brazil’s demand outpaces global growth: While the pace of global energy demand is set to slow as efficiency improves and economies shift toward less energy-intensive activities, Brazil follows a different trajectory. The report concludes that, by 2040, Brazil will have a 25-percent increase in primary energy demand, driven by a growing population, higher income per capita and industrial expansion.
- Renewables drive supply expansion: Last year, approximately 25 percent of Brazil’s primary energy came from renewables, and the share is expected to rise to 36 percent by 2040. Roughly 80 percent of the additional primary energy needed to meet demand growth up to 2040 comes from renewable sources, with hydropower as the backbone and solar and wind showing the largest gains.
- Brazil’s energy emissions form a small share of overall emissions: Brazil’s emissions profile sets it apart from most large emitters. In 2023, total emissions were about 2.0 gigatons, yet only around 21 percent came from energy. Nearly 40 percent stemmed from land use, landuse change and forestry, and about 31 percent from agriculture.
- Climate regulation framework taking shape: Since 2023, Brazil’s regulatory landscape has moved quickly to anchor its decarbonization trajectory. New laws and regulations are institutionalizing frameworks for biofuels, carbon capture and storage, low-carbon hydrogen, electric mobility and, most notably, a regulated carbon market.
- Oil and gas take a backup role in transition: Unlike other countries, oil and gas play a supporting rather than leading role in Brazil’s energy transition. Oil demand rises from 2.6 million to about 2.7 million barrels per day in the early 2030s and then holds roughly flat to 2040, while total liquids, including biofuels, grow more strongly as ethanol and biodiesel displace part of the fossil pool. Natural gas demand remains modest by international standards, with upside in power, fertilizers, and industrial fuel switching if prices become more competitive.
Beyond the Data
Jaffar said her experience at Rystad Energy has reinforced that data alone is not enough to predict the future.
“Context is everything. The same dataset can lead to different conclusions depending on regulation, infrastructure, financing conditions and political dynamics. Another important learning is how critical long-term partnerships are in this region. Trust and continuity really matter in Latin America. In an era increasingly shaped by AI, maintaining active, human relationships with the market has become one of the greatest differentiators and something technology can enhance, but never fully replace,” she said.
Attending events like COP creates opportunities to align global intelligence with local realities.
“A COP is where global priorities are discussed, negotiated and eventually translated into decisions that shape regulation, capital allocation and long-term strategy,” she said.
“As someone in a market intelligence business, being there felt essential, not only to closely follow how these decisions are made, but also to stay connected to the policymakers, companies and institutions we support in their strategic thinking.”
Jaffar noted that COP30 was particularly meaningful because it was held in Belém.
“Bringing the event to the Amazon placed the energy addition debate much closer to the realities of emerging economies and resource-rich regions, reinforcing how important it is to balance climate ambition with development, energy security and social impact,” she said.
COP Results
After two weeks of intense negotiations, the 195 parties approved the Belém Package. The 29 decisions adopted by consensus include agreements on just transition, adaptation finance, trade, gender and technology, renewing the collective commitment to accelerated action and to a climate regime more closely connected to people’s lives.
The package called for mobilizing funds for climate action and launched two major initiatives: the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mission to 1.5-degrees Celsius, to “help countries deliver on” their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or national climate action plans, and adaptation plans.
The final text did not include an explicit reference to phasing out fossil fuels – an initiative supported by more than 80 countries, instead maintaining the COP28 language calling for “transitioning away from fossil fuels.”
A total of 119 countries submitted updated NDCs, outlining commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change impacts.
Collectively, however, these commitments still place the world on a modeled trajectory of 2.3 to 2.8-degrees Celsius, of warming, well above the 1.5-degree target.
Following the event in Belem, Rystad published COP 30: Progress, gaps and the road ahead to COP 31.
The report summarizes key outcomes from the conference, including the updated NDCs and what they imply for global emissions, the gaps between current commitments and a 1.5-degrees Celsius pathway. The Rystad report also highlights the political tensions that shaped the final package, such as the exclusion of the fossil-fuel transition roadmap and critical minerals and discusses what these decisions mean for COP31 to be hosted by Türkey, with negotiations led by Australia, in 2026.
The Way Forward for Brazil
Jaffar said her experience at COP30 led her to several conclusions.
“My main takeaway is that the transition will not be linear or uniform or easy,” she said.
“Countries will move at different speeds and along different paths. Companies that understand local realities and design flexible strategies will be far better positioned than those applying one-size-fits-all approaches.”
Flexible strategies are particularly important for companies operating in countries like Brazil, whose energy sector Jaffar describes as “complex, but promising.”
“Brazil combines scale and diversity like no other country in the region,” she said.
“It has a large domestic market, sophisticated operators, deep capital markets and a relatively diversified energy mix. This allows Brazil to test, absorb and scale solutions faster than many of its neighbors,” she said.
Along with the opportunities come challenges, most of which Jaffar attributes to coordination and execution.
“We have strong resources, a diversified energy mix and solid technical expertise, but regulatory uncertainty, infrastructure bottlenecks and lengthy permitting processes can slow progress,” she said.
“Brazil has all the resources and capabilities to be one of the most diversified and resourceful energy countries in the world, yet at times we create obstacleto our own development due to a lack of coordination across institutions and stakeholders,” said Jaffar.
Alongside this complexity lie significant opportunities.
“Brazil stands out in offshore oil and gas, bioenergy, gas-to-power, and increasingly in the energy transition space, including hydrogen, carbon management and renewable integration. At the same time, it is important to recognize that there are still substantial energy resources to be developed, which can and should be explored with sustainability, responsibility and strong governance at the core,” she said. “There is also a major opportunity in improving market design and overall efficiency.”
Advice for Potential Investors
Jaffar has plenty of advice for companies interested in working in Brazil.
“Companies should understand that Brazil rewards long-term thinking,” she said. “It’s not a short-term or purely transactional market. Regulatory knowledge, local partnerships and patience are key. While Brazil has its own idiosyncrasies, it is a relatively stable environment for investors, with a strong track record of honoring contracts and commitments, which ultimately enhances predictability for those willing to engage with the market in a consistent and informed way.”