Events

Date: Monday 24 February 2020 (1 day) Instructor: Steve Begg, DecisionsDecisions, Australia Overview: There is strong evidence that many Oil and Gas projects are plagued by large cost and schedule overruns, or significant under-performance in productivity and other metrics used to justify decisions. Business outcomes are largely determined by two factors: the decisions we make and uncertainties over which we have no control. The best we can do to get good outcomes is to make good decisions. But have you ever been taught how to make a good decision? Would you know a good decision if you saw one? This workshop will introduce key concepts in Decision Analysis (DA) and the Decision Dialogue Process (DDP) – a non-proprietary, rigorous (scientifically underpinned) approach to decision-making, used for over 40 years in a variety of sectors such as oil & gas, pharmaceuticals, IT, military, aviation, environment ….. Together, they provide a prescriptive, pragmatic, auditable methodology (process and tools) to help people create and evaluate choices, leading to high quality, compelling decisions. The methodology is entirely scalable in that its principles can be implemented within a few minutes or over weeks or months, depending on the nature and importance of the decision. Thus it is applicable from relatively small investments (hiring an employee; choosing a supplier of services or software) through to major decisions (acquiring leases; drilling; project developments; or organizational strategy). It is equally applicable to personal decisions. The workshop will cover the key conceptual ideas that are required to make good decisions and introduce a model that is applicable to most decisions that require a modicum of thought. Attendees will be expected to respond to questions about decision-making and engage in small group discussions and exercises. Who Should Attend All people who make, or provide input to, decisions - from relatively minor decisions (e.g. to collect data or do “studies”, analysis, interpretation) up to major investment or strategic decisions. Suitable for all geoscientists, engineers and people involved in commercial, economics, business development, strategy. Course Content Questionnaire Decisions & Uncertainty Poor business performance and it’s major causes: uncertainty and “flawed thinking” Decision-making (ranking) vs prediction/forecasting Clarification of concepts: Uncertainty vs ambiguity vs variability vs risk Risk attitudes – what they really are/mean and their impact on aggregate decision-outcomes Fundamentals of Decision-Making Decision Analysis Decision Elements & Model Easy/Hard decisions, Good/Bad Decisions and Incentives How to make Good decisions Advocacy vs structured decision-dialogue Assessing decision quality (DQ) both during and after decision-making process Simplified version of DA Centrality of valid reasoning in making good decisions in complex and uncertain situations Common Biases and Trap in Decision-making: Identification, Explanation and Mitigation Positive Illusions Overconfidence Optimism Anchoring Planning Fallacy Availability, Vividness and Recency Learning from visual judgments Summary of Key Points Instructor’s Profile Steve Begg is an oil and gas industry expert on decision-making under uncertainty, including asset and portfolio economic assessments and the psychology of decision-making, particularly bias assessment and mitigation. He is co-author of the book, “Making Good Decisions”, commissioned by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. He is an Emeritus Professor of Petroleum Engineering and Management at the Australian School of Petroleum at the University of Adelaide, where he has worked since 2002. For six years, he was Head of the School. Before joining The University of Adelaide, Steve was Director for Decision Science and Strategic Planning with Landmark Graphics Corporation (a Halliburton company) where he was responsible for leading improved economic evaluation and decision-making for both Landmark and its customers. Earlier, he worked with BP for 13 years, the last 6 of which were spent in a variety of senior geo-science and engineering operational assignments in Alaska, which spanned production forecasting, economic evaluation, petroleum engineering, and reservoir characterization roles. He also spent seven years as a researcher and Project Manager with BP Research, where his focus was on risk and uncertainty assessment related to reservoir modeling. His decision-making expertise is grounded in his understanding of the industry, surface and subsurface. Steve has published numerous papers on topics such as: decision-making under uncertainty; asset and portfolio investment evaluation/economics; psychological factors in judgement & decision-making (bias assessment and mitigation when eliciting subject-matter-expert opinions’ and uncertainty assessments); and reservoir characterization (heterogeneity/uncertainty modelling and up-scaling). He was instrumental in starting the SPE Economics and Management journal. His contributions to decision-making and economic evaluation have been recognized by receiving the SPE Asia-Pacific regional award, and in 2016 the SPE’s top International Award, for the Management and Information discipline. Steve holds a PhD degree in Geophysics and a BSc degree in Geological Geophysics from Reading University and has attended executive education short courses at MIT and the University of Texas.

Date: Friday 28 – Saturday 29 February 2020 (2 days) Instructor: John Kaldi, Australian School of Petroleum, University of Adelaide, Australia Overview: This course demonstrates the use of capillary pressure and relative permeability data in conjunction with basic rock properties and wireline logs, to evaluate reservoir rock quality, recovery efficiency and net pay. The course also covers the main aspects of determining seal potential (seal capacity, seal geometry and seal integrity) as well as the main controls on fault seals, and methods used in evaluating these. The course is presented in a workshop format, allowing participants to delve into the details in several practical exercises. Who should attend: Geologists, reservoir engineers and managers involved in hydrocarbon exploration and/or development, will benefit from the straightforward and intuitive presentation of principles governing petroleum migration and accumulation, net pay determination, as well as practical applications to determine seal properties for both oil and gas reservoirs. Course Content Introduction to Reservoirs, Seals And Pay Basic Principles of Capillary Pressure Caprock And Intraformational Seal Evaluation Pore Geometry Relative Permeability and Recovery Efficiency Net Pay Determination Instructor’s Profile John Kaldi is a Professor at the Australian School of Petroleum (ASP) University of Adelaide, Australia and Principle Advisor the Cooperative Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC). He is Adjunct Professor at the Institute of Technology, Bandung (ITB), Indonesia, and Visiting Professor at University of Technology Petronas (UTP), Malaysia. He received his PhD in Geology from Cambridge University, England and then worked for the Saskatchewan Geological Survey, Shell Canada, ARCO (Texas and Indonesia) and VICO. He was Director of the National Centre for Petroleum Geology and Geophysics (NCPGG) at the University of Adelaide, and then served as the Founder and Head of the ASP. Dr. Kaldi served as AAPG President Asia‐Pacific; Vice‐president (International Regions), and was the recipient of AAPG’s Special Commendation Award, Distinguished Service Award and Lifetime Honorary Member Award. He has been an AAPG, PESA and SPE Distinguished Lecturer. He is committed to providing continuing education courses for the oil and gas sector by teaching courses around the world for Professional societies, Universities and energy companies.

Date: Friday 28 – Saturday 29 February 2020 (2 days) Instructor: Ken McClay, Professor of Structural Geology Overview: This 2 day short course will focus firstly on the development of extensional basins, rifts and passive margins followed by inversion of these systems and the formation of thick and thin-skinned thrust belts. Extensional fault geometries, segmentation and linkages will be analysed as well as the architectures of extensional basins illustrated with field examples from the Gulf of Suez and Northern Red Sea as well as seismic examples from rift basins and passive margins. Inversion systems will be discussed in the context of how basement rift fault systems influence and control inversion geometries. Thick and thin-skinned orogenic systems will be examined in the context of inverted basins and thin-skinned thrust systems using examples from PNG, the Pyrenees, the Zagros fold and thrust belt and other systems. Characteristic structural styles and hydrocarbon systems in these terranes will be will be copiously illustrated using field, seismic, physical sand box and numerical models. Who should attend: Final year Geoscience students; starting geoscientists in the petroleum industry as well as mid- senior level geoscientists needing modern concepts of structural geology for the petroleum industry. Instructor’s Profile Ken McClay, Professor of Structural Geology, - BSc Honours degree in Economic Geology from Adelaide University, - MSc in Structural Geology & Rock Mechanics and PhD in Structural Geology from Imperial College, University of London, and DSc from Adelaide University: Emeritus Professor in the Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London and an Adjunct Professor in the Australian School of Petroleum at Adelaide University. From 1991 until December 2018 he was Professor of Structural Geology and Director of the Fault Dynamics Research Group at Royal Holloway University of London. He carried out wide-ranging research on all aspects of applied structural geology. This has involved field research in NW Scotland, the Spanish Pyrenees, Indonesia, Yemen, Iran, Australia, Canada, USA, Chile, Argentina, Greenland, Norway, Turkey, Ethiopia and Gulf of Suez and Red Sea Egypt. His research interests include extensional, strike-slip, thrust and inversion terranes. He ran a large experimental analogue modelling laboratory for the simulation of fault structures and sedimentary architectures at Royal Holloway. He has written a book for mapping structures in the field, edited five major volumes on thrust tectonics, and has published widely on structural geology and tectonics and he is a consultant for the international petroleum industry and has given many short courses for the industry. Ken focuses on field analogues for geological structures to illustrate structural styles and mechanical stratigraphy, on analogue modelling of faults and fold systems and on seismic interpretation of sub-surface structures. Current major research projects include tectonic evolution of the Northern Chilean Andes, fold and thrust belts in accretionary terranes, tectonic evolution of deep-water fold belts as well as extensional tectonics and structural evolution of the NW Shelf of Australia.