Global Discoveries and Production

Talking Point:

Here is the history of the oil age, from the onset of significant discoveries in the early 1900s to the decline that started in the 1970s. These data were compiled from public sources, and arranged them to show volumes of conventional oil, heavy oil, and gas compiled by discovery year, and annual production shown by the heavy yellow line. Note that the world is currently replacing only about 50% of current production.

• Discovery of heavy oil peaked in the mid 1930s, with major resources in Canada and Venezuela.
• Conventional oil discoveries peaked in the mid 1960s, followed by
• Gas discoveries, which peaked in the mid 1970s.
• Note that discoveries of both oil and gas then declined through the late 1970s and early 1980s, before the disastrous price crash in the mid-1980s. The industry was running flat out with record rates of rig activity and still finding less oil and gas.
• By the end of the 1970’s, some drilling had been completed in some 1100 basins, covering almost all prospective areas of the world at that time other than deep water.
• There have been exceptions over the last 10 years, with significant discoveries in deepwater areas, the Middle East, and the North Caspian, but even these have not reversed the trend
• These new finds demonstrate the need to be flexible and vigilant in exploration, but they also show that we are approaching global limits for major new discoveries

Let’s look next at what may remain to be discovered.