AAPG
EXPLORER
EXPLORER
This month’s column is extracted from my address at the opening session of the AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition in Long Beach, Calif., on April 22. I thank AAPG staff members Vicki Beighle and David Lange for their extraordinary help in generating these statistics and figures.
A recurring theme of my columns is the long-term health of AAPG. In this column I’d like to focus (again) on long-term trends in membership.
This year I have heard many members express opinions about future membership trends, without the benefit of membership data. Because we’re scientists, let’s look at the data, the programs that AAPG has implemented, and where AAPG might go in the future.
The following figures illustrate our long-term trends in membership since 1979, so that we can consider the implications of our membership policies.
The first eight figures show the ages of members in groups of five years on the horizontal axis, and total number of members for each group on the vertical axis.
Three comments on the graphs:
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In 1979, we see a distinct bimodal distribution in the ages of AAPG members (Figure 1). One peak was at ages 26-30 (4,000 members, called hereafter “Baby Boomers”), and the other was around ages 51-55 (almost 4,000 members, called affectionately the “Long-in-the-Tooth” Generation, or LITT). 1979 was the first year that the Baby Boomers became the largest age group in AAPG membership. Many young people joined AAPG at this time due to rising oil prices between 1973 and 1978, and the extensive hiring associated with the rapid expansion of the U.S. oil industry.
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By 1983 (Figure 2), the Baby Boomers group, remaining at ages 26-30, has grown to nearly 9,400 members. The LITT Generation has shifted to ages 56-60, but their numbers remain about 4,000. The price of oil has dropped a bit from its peak in late 1979, but industry was still robust.
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By 1987 (Figure 3), the Baby Boomers have now moved to the 31-to-35 age group (with a slight decrease to 8,800), and the LITT Generation still resides in the 56-60 group (about 3,200 members). The price of oil has stabilized after its precipitous drop in late 1985 and 1986. The massive downsizing of our industry that began slowly in 1981 and accelerated in 1985 and 1986 began to have an effect on membership.
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By 1991 (Figure 4), the Baby Boomers have moved to the age 36-40 group and have decreased in numbers to 6,900. The LITT Generation is now ages 61-65 and has 3,000 members. The substantial reorganization of industry during the late 1980s had begun to take an effect on the absolute number of Baby Boomer members.
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By 1996 (Figure 5), the Baby Boomers peak has moved to the age 41-45 group, and has decreased in absolute numbers to 6,000. The LITT Generation is now age 66-70 and 2,200 members. There was a small price increase in oil beginning in late 1995 that lasted for about two years.
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By 2001 (Figure 6), the shape of the graph begins to change to a uni-modal distribution, with two significant plateaus to the left and right. The Baby Boomers have moved to ages 46-50, but remain at 6,000 members. The LITT Generation is now ages 71-75 with 2,000 members.
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In the year 2006 (Figure 7), there are now about 5,400 Baby Boomers and they have moved to the 51-55 age group. The LITT Generation has now moved to ages 76-80 and totals 1,300 members. Meanwhile, the student numbers are beginning to increase. Importantly, student sponsorship began in 2003; that is, students’ dues were first subsidized.
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Finally, in 2011 (Figure 8), the Baby Boomers now number 4,200 and have moved to the 56-60 age group. The LITT Generation are all now 80 or older – in fact, all people past 80 are now included in this group, so there is an artificial increase in numbers to 1,800. Oil prices have recovered after the drop of the late 2008 financial crisis. The number of students has grown substantially and appears to be the dominant age group; but as we will see below, appearances can be deceiving.
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The evolution of the LITT Generation and Boomer populations is summarized in Figure 9. The years are now shown on the X axis, and the total numbers of members on the Y axis. In a simplistic way, you can treat these graphs as decline curves from a producing well, although I do not want to push the analogy too far because of statistical problems. The actual movement of these age groups is not as straightforward as these graphs show, but they still illustrate the general migration of membership through time.
Looking at Figures 1 through 9, the key point is obvious. The Baby Boomers are now in a similar decline curve as their LITT forefathers. For AAPG to maintain a large number of members, we must recruit new members to succeed the Baby Boomers.
Next, let’s analyze the programs that AAPG Leadership has implemented during the past decade to see how they’ve affected membership.
Five programs and policies to increase student memberships have had some success.
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Now let’s look at long-term Student membership trends. As Figure 10 shows, the percentage of Student membership has grown from 6.9 percent in 2003 to 14.3 percent today.
When we compare the number of Student members with Baby Boomers and the LITT Generation (Figure 9), it appears that the Student members are replacing the decline of the Baby Boomers, and becoming the dominant group in AAPG – just like when the Boomers joined in 1979 (Figure 1).
However, the graph in Figure 9 is misleading. The reality is that the number of Student members fluctuates considerably within any one year. Specifically, two dates for Student member numbers are shown in Figure 11 for the most recent five-year interval: March 1 (pre-billing) and June 30 (post-billing).
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As you can see, the way that we count our Student members depends on the time of the year. The pre-billing number in Figure 11 is a snapshot of Student membership at its yearly peak – students whose dues have been 100 percent subsidized. The June 30 snapshot shows the numbers of Student members who have decided to keep their AAPG membership and pay dues for the first time. The numbers show a difference of about 2,000 in 2007 and 2,008 increasing to 5,000 in 2012. Thus, Students are not completely replacing the Baby Boomers.
The AAPG HOD voted for graduated dues for members at the April 2007 Annual Convention in Long Beach. This allows members with lower incomes to pay lower dues. The purpose was to increase our membership, especially in the non-U.S. arena. Note that the SPE and SEG already had similar policies.
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Three figures help us evaluate the effects of graduated dues. As Figure 12 shows, the number of graduated-dues-paying members has increased from 117 in 2008 to 2,140 in FY 2012.
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About 63 percent of these members are from the United States, and about 37 percent are non-U.S. (Figure 13). Thus, we conclude that this program has considerable potential for growth in non-U.S. settings.
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Next, let’s review the distribution of membership in terms of U.S. versus non-U.S. (Figure 14). Since 2001, U.S. membership in AAPG has been essentially flat – hovering around 21,700 members. In contrast, our non-U.S. membership in the same time period has increased from 8,703 to 13,517. Note that both the U.S. and non-U.S. statistics include Student members. Clearly, if AAPG wants to grow or maintain current numbers, we must increase both U.S. and non-U.S. membership. It is important for us to recognize that geoscientists outside North America have different needs and requirements, including a different perspective regarding ethics and membership requirements.
Finally, let’s review three additional important aspects of membership.
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Membership by voting class is shown in Figure 15. Note that one must be an Active, Honorary or Emeritus member to vote. In 1985 we reached our highest number of voting members. Since that time, the numbers of voting members have steadily declined. In addition, the relative percent of voting members has declined during the past five years. Clearly, a large number of Associate members do not convert themselves into Active members. This issue affects the selection of AAPG leadership because only Active members can vote. AAPG is becoming (a) less participatory, at least in terms of voting, and (b) less representative. Two solutions are to increase international Active membership and/or change the structure. AAPG staff has been working on identifying Associate members who appear to be qualified to be Active. Engaging them will help make the Association more participatory.
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The number of women as a portion of membership is shown in Figure 16. Overall membership decreased from 1986 to 1995 (10.6 to 8.3 percent), and has slowly increased every year since then – it is now 1/6 of membership (16.7 percent). As part of the work force in the United States, the trend is toward women comprising more than 50 percent. It is worth noting that today women earn almost 60 percent of all bachelor’s degrees and more than half of master’s and Ph.Ds. in the United States. AAPG needs to continue to engage this part of the work force in all aspects of the organization.
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The last graph shows the price of oil in inflation adjusted 2011 dollars versus total membership (Figure 17). Curiously, there is not a strong correlation between price and the total numbers of members. It appears that membership increases lag slightly behind boom times.
The future success of our Association depends largely on the recruitment and retention of new members to carry out the missions of the Association. However, it is difficult to project membership trends into the future due to the number of variables – for example, Student retention, non-U.S. membership, and the rate of Baby Boomer decline.
The real question, then, is – whither AAPG? What does AAPG want to be in the coming decades? Primarily a U.S. society with 15,000 members? Or perhaps a global society of 40,000 members or more?
You may recall at the 2011 All-Convention Luncheon, Harrison “Jack” Schmidt (Apollo 17 astronaut and AAPG Honorary Member) observed that the average age of the NASA engineers who worked to place humans on the moon was 26. I think this is a wonderful metaphor for AAPG’s future.
From my AAPG travels this year, speaking with members in 25 countries as well as the United States, I have seen the face of the AAPG’s future, and I like it! The face of our future is a young face; an international face, speaking multiple languages. These students and young professionals are hungry for knowledge. They see science and technology evolving rapidly – especially in the area of unconventional resources – and they want to apply new techniques now to help accelerate the transformation toward unconventional to conventional resources. What they want from AAPG membership is to access as much state-of-the-art geoscience information as they can. Fortunately, AAPG has the potential to do this.
In summary, here are my key learnings and recommendations for increasing membership and improving the overall health of the Association through services.
♦ Companies investing in universities globally.
In nearly all of the countries that I visited this year I was struck by two things. First, students expressed their frustration about the lack of access to AAPG’s scientific information. Not all university libraries can provide access to the wealth of AAPG publications. Second, it also became evident that there is a surprising lack of engagement between companies and universities. There are several reasons for this, but the primary reason is a lack of desire on the companies’ part. This divide between companies and universities has an immediate negative impact on the future of AAPG in terms of building and retaining memberships, and on the long-term health of our profession.
I have encouraged companies to do two things: (1) Take the time to give talks and speak with students at local universities about the profession. (2) Donate a permanent subscription to AAPG Datapages to increase universities’ access to all of AAPG publications.
Here is one scenario. In Country X, let’s say that 10 major universities have broad programs in petroleum geology-related fields, and participate in the IBA program. If the five largest companies who operate in Country X gave $30,000 each, their combined gift of $150,000 would give the universities lifetime access to AAPG’s publications. I cannot think of a better investment for the future.
Finally, in addition to the IBA program, the AAPG also can help universities by placing more regional lecturers and VGPs into Regions. We are starting to implement this program.
♦ Cooperation with other societies.
In my January column I discussed the need for AAPG to increase its level of participation with other societies, partly because our members are demanding we do so. In response, we opened the joint office with the SEG in Dubai in early March. Previously, on February 24, select members of the AAPG and SEG Executive Committees met with staff members to discuss additional areas for future collaboration. One surprising fact that emerged was the number of members who belonged to both societies (about 6 percent of SEG). I hope our collaboration will increase so that we can co-sponsor additional events for members.
Another example of cooperation is the EAGE Memorandum of Understanding to increase our joint offerings. We expect to sign this in June. The first joint EAGE-AAPG research conference will be held in Cyprus in early 2013, with plans for subsequent annual affairs around the globe.
AAPG’s mission and activities are not always aligned with other societies. However, without more cooperation all associations will lose ground to for-profit organizations, which are diluting the market for high-quality scientific conferences.
♦ Reconsidering membership requirements.
The movement toward membership simplification that began several years ago continued this year, led by members Jeff Lund and Andrea Reynolds. These are a series of positive continuing steps to make the AAPG application experience more efficient (process) and welcoming (qualification and application requirements).
What I learned this year from speaking with many members is that most do not understand the reasons for our membership requirements, and they think the process to become an Active member is unnecessarily onerous. That is one reason, if not the primary reason, for the decline in Active membership (Figure 15). To increase our membership and, importantly, the number of Active members, will require further simplification and re-evaluation of some of our requirements.
♦ A new golden age for applied geosciences.
I think the AAPG is entering into a new golden age for applied geosciences due to the confluence of two emerging factors. First, our science has evolved considerably during the past few years – the move toward unconventional resources is challenging many traditional concepts that involve petroleum systems, migration, reservoirs, and porosity systems, while pushing us to develop new methods and technologies to explore for and produce these resources.
Second, we now have the ability to deliver our scientific information almost instantly around the world. In our April column, Steve Laubach, Ted Beaumont and I reviewed our ongoing efforts to improve the Association’s abilities to deliver science. This transformation will take two-three years, but I think this is absolutely essential to our future ability to entice new members and retain current members. With these capabilities, we could globally reach the full potential of our influence as a professional society.
In summary, as we honor the past, we must also begin to ring in the new by embracing the opportunities of the present and future. Our best path forward is to use the influence we have already earned, and apply new learnings to grow membership and the long-term health of the organization. 
Paul Weimer, AAPG President (2011-12), is a geology professor at
the University of Colorado, Boulder.