President’s Message
Dear Readers,
The Late General DeGAULLE, one of the most charismatic political leaders of Europe in the second half of the 20th Century, when asked what had been the greatest challenge in his life replied:
“To govern a country with almost 365 different types of cheese.”
Looking at developments of the global economy in the past months, including the oil industry, a modified version of this “bon mot” came to my mind and certainly to most of the industry executives’ minds:
“How to govern an industry with future projects spanning five to thirty years in an economic and financial environment producing a seventy percent drop in oil price within 6 months.”
Recently it has been an amusing experience for me to watch a DVD summary of the keynote presentations of the 19th World Petroleum Congress (Madrid, June 2008) with lengthy lamentations about the damaging impact of the actual 160USD/barrel and future 200 USD/barrel oil price on the world’s economy… and go back to the hotel and watch the BBC Newsreel with a dramatic report about to the adverse impact of the extraordinary low oil price 50 USD/barrel.
Additionally, senior management of oil companies needs to cope with the impact of the financial crisis combined with extra taxes (“Robin Hood” tax) imposed by a number of governments chasing cheap popularity. Everybody swears that there will be no return to short term solutions, but realistically thinking, survival in such an environment demands a reconsideration of corporate plans including CAPEX and OPEX. Unfortunately the usual first and fastest step is a drastic reduction of “soft money”, including business trips and conference budgets. It is predictable, that this situation will have an impact upon scientific organizations including but not limited to the AAPG.
In this situation, it is very probable that the larger conferences with more general topics will suffer more than the specific events focusing on a particular technical subject or geographical area, as well as training courses. We have to encourage the decision makers of the need to retain skilled professionals and to keep on training young professionals. It must be made clear, that the dramatic shortage of skilled professionals endangers a smooth “crew change” and only a short term reduction in demand for their knowledge and skill will result from a temporary drop in the number of new projects. Furthermore, the number of new projects can not be kept low for a long time without risking the supply of oil and gas in 10 to 15 years time.
The first reactions of responsible leaders in the oil industry are in line with the above mentioned principles, they want to maintain long term goals, recruitment, training and education.
We have to support them to do so.
István BÉRCZI
President 2007-09
AAPG European Region