AAPG - European Region News
AAPG’s Growth Challenge in Russia: From Enigma to Partner?
John Dolson, EMD Councilor, European Region Exploration Advisor, TNK-BP, Moscow, Russia
“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”
Introduction
Many of you have heard parts of this famous 1939 quote from Winston Churchill on the eve of World War II. However, few have heard the entire quotation, which remains as true today as it was 69 years ago (as it would for any country!). When Hugo Matias asked me to write something on the status of AAPG in Russia, I decided to draw heavily from a talk I gave at APPEX in London in 2006 and to focus on what it will take to make AAPG grow in this important country. The brief history of the industry since the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and the look at the present landscape give in this issue’s Coutry Focus section shed some light on the challenges of past and future AAPG members to grow relationships in Russia.
It is virtually impossible today to pick up any journal dedicated to oil and gas exploration without reference to the Russian oil industry. I am now finishing my fourth year here but also had the unique opportunity to work in the Former Soviet Union from 1992-1994 during the turbulent early days of the breakup of the FSU. In June of 1994, I helped create, through Akif Narimonov of SOCAR, the Azerbaijan Association of Petroleum Geologists which became the first and ONLY affiliate society of AAPG in the former Soviet Union. Since then, we have failed to attract robust membership and have had only sporadic technical presence. In 2004, AAPG held an International Conference in St. Petersburg but with very little follow-through on new relationships. In fact, conversations with Russian peers revealed some frustration with AAPG ‘disappearing’ after the conference.
The irony of this is simple. Russia has the largest petroleum reserve base in the world, one of the largest and most highly educated work-forces and stretches across a distance equivalent from Ireland to the Aleutian Islands. With 50% of University age students studying science and mathematics, it has the potential for enormous growth in AAPG members. In fact, SPE has grown dramatically here in the last six years, continuously breaking growth records for other parts of its organization. In the last year, however, even that has slowed.
Why is building that link so important to AAPG in Europe and globally? Because with today’s global economy and thirst for new energy sources in India and China, Russia is now in a powerful political and economic position in the geopolitics of oil.
Success Breeds Complacency: The Challenge for AAPG
Figure 1. Staff participating in an integrated core and seismic high-resolution sequence stratigraphic study of the Cretaceous in West Siberia. Interest in new technologies is high here and the labor pool of students and young geoscientists large.What does this have to do with AAPG? Until as recently as 1998, activity in AAPG was officially discouraged. Even today, many Russians perceive no value in our organization (i.e., ‘what can you do for me that I haven’t done?). In addition, no tradition of geological societies which freely share information and ideas really exists here. We can’t find affiliated societies because there are virtually no societies to affiliate with. So, the business model is different.
SPE, EAGE and SEG, like AAPG, have to create new programs that draw in participation and create a real sense of value added. Monthly talks, more local conferences and joint publications in English and Russian are a necessity for growth here.
So What Has AAPG Done Recently?
- Brought Russia into the European Region in 2006, when it was previously split between Europe and Asia regions.
- Successfully added 4 student chapters at Goblin, Moscow State, Tyumen Univ. and St. Petersburg Univ.
- Moscow State University Student chapter was recognized with an Honorable Mention, Best Student Chapter Internationally in 2006.
- Hosts monthly talks in Moscow in cooperation with EAGE and SEG
- Is planning for the 2009 ‘3P’ (Polar Petroleum Potential) AAPG conference in 2009. Appropriate approvals have been obtained from the government and AAPG.
- Have successfully had AAPG Memoir 86 on World Hydrocarbon Resources translated to Russian.
- The European Region elected its first Russian (Dr. Nikolai Lopatin) to the House of Delegates.
- Took a lead role in the December, 2007 International Geological and Geophysical Conference, in conjunction with EAGO, SEG and ROSNEDRO. The 600+ conference featured a full day of a “Best of AAPG” session, including keynote papers by Henry Posamentier, George Pemberton, Keith Shanley and others.Concluded corporate membership for up to 200 geoscientists from TNK-BP. Additional discussions are ongoing with Rosneft and Lukhoil.
- Completed one Presidential tour (Pete Rose + John Brooks) and preparing for another (Scott Tinker)
- Deepened relationships with key leaders through Istvan Berczi, President, European Region.
- Brought the AAPG/Imperial Barrel Award competition to Gubkin University in 2007 and to Moscow State University in 2008.
- Substantially increased membership, particularly with students
- The HOD passed the graduate dues structure, which now makes it easier for lower-paid Russian geoscientists and academics to join.
What is Needed Now?
- AAPG needs to develop sustained and broad Russian leadership. Once Russian leadership takes over AAPG growth in a manner which Russians want, we will start to grow.
- Bring the winter education conference to Russia
- Deploy short-courses in Russia
- Consider opening a local office, perhaps in Tyumen, the center of the Russian oil and gas industry.
- Annual presence in small conferences or in cooperation with sister societies
- Find key Russian papers and translate/publish in English for our broader membership.
- Continually provide innovative low-cost services, and most importantly, show the respect to our counterparts they deserve.
- Find a way to grow both the EMD and DEG here.
- Get more members of the European Region involved in work and meetings in Russia.
Dispelling Some Myths
Figure 2. Dispelling the myths of a hardship location: Rick Fritz, AAPG Executive Director, enjoying a night in West Siberia with a beautiful Russian dancer in the background. I am preparing to relocate from Moscow to Tyumen in West Siberia for the remainder of this year, to concentrate on coaching and project acceleration with our exploration and development staff. On my first visit there nearly 4 years ago, I recalled the stories of poor living conditions, drafty hotels and bad food from over 14 years ago. Today, by stark contrast, Tyumen is a rapidly expanding and improving city, with many fine restaurants, beautiful wooded country-sides with abundant lakes and rivers and modern, comfortable hotels.
This is happening all over Russia. With a GDP growth rate of 15%, renovation, construction and economic advancement are visible daily. Our younger staff, in particular, are increasingly well paid, and eager to learn English and develop new skills. I work in a company which improves monthly as our training sinks in and we continue to knock down barriers between eastern and western cultures and technologies.