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Risk and Uncertainty for Contemporary Prospect Evaluations
- INSTRUCTOR :
- Darrel Norman, GeoKnowledge, LaGrange, GA
- June 19 - 20, 2014
- The Summit Conference Center, Denver, CO
(if purchased individually)
Registration for the entire week is $1,795 for members, $2,095 nonmembers. Goes up to $1995/$2295, and/or individual course prices increase by $50/course day on 5/19/2014. Course notes, refreshments and lunch buffet included.
No refunds for cancellations after 5/19/2014.
- 1.5 CEU What is a CEU?
Who Should Attend
This course is designed for geoscientists and engineers who are involved in the pre-drill assessment of resource volumes and risks in multiple-objective exploration prospects. Any professional who is familiar with the basics of risk and uncertainty, and who is ready to take the “next step” by applying the basic principles to the complex, multiple-objective prospects described by modern evaluation techniques, will benefit.
The course provides participants with an overview of the methods required to quantify the risks and uncertainties defined by a modern geologic evaluation. Emphasis is on the assessment of modern prospects that contain multiple objectives such as stacked pays, faulted anticlines, or channel complexes.
By the end of the course, participants should be able to accomplish the following:
- Calculate the hydrocarbon volume within a single objective using depth-dependent methods.
- Calculate the chance of success and mean resource volume for a multiple-objective prospect, including a prospect with risk dependency among objectives.
- Create a hydrocarbon-water contact uncertainty distribution for a structure that contains multiple trap types such as a fault dependent trap below a fault-independent closure.
- Describe and assess hydrocarbon-water contact scenarios for a prospect that contains multiple structures, such a two anticlines separated by a saddle, and incorporate risk trap or seal risk on the individual structures.
The course combines lectures, open discussion, and exercises to illustrate the assessment of a typical “modern” prospect. The course encourages the intelligent application of the methods, rather than on prescriptive “cookbook recipes.” Instruction is based on the philosophy that the geologic evaluation, including the risks and uncertainties associated with the evaluation, should define the assessment methods.
Risk and uncertainty classes typically cover the basics of probabilistic assessment. Participants learn to apply prescriptive principles to single zones. This course goes beyond the basics, demonstrating how to intelligently combine multiple objectives and to assess the relationships among the objectives.
Topics will include:
- Review of assessment basics including volumetric calculations, risk concepts, and representations of uncertainty
- Aggregation of independent multiple objectives
- Risk dependency concepts including maximum and partial dependencies
- Volume relationships among objectives
- Assessment of combination traps
- Assessment of multiple-structure prospects
- Multiple interpretations or scenarios
- Integration of trap volume uncertainty with charge volume uncertainty
- Economic evaluation of multiple-objective prospects
- Risking stratigraphic traps
- Using Bayesian risk modification to assess DHI prospects
- Overview of play risk and play assessment
The exercises involve manual calculations, using graphs or hand calculators. The principles can be applied to any assessment software application that allows assessment of multiple objectives. The participants will learn to understand the inputs and results of their assessment application, rather than viewing the program as a “black box.”