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Quantification of Geologic Risk
- INSTRUCTOR :
- Gary Citron, Rose & Associates, LLP, Houston, TX
- June 21 - 22, 2012
- Norris Conference Center, Fort Worth, TX
(if purchased individually)
Registration for the entire week is $1,795 for members, $1,895 nonmembers. Goes up to $1895/$1995, and/or individual course prices increase by $50/course day after 5/21/2012. Course notes, refreshments and lunch buffet included.
No refunds for cancellations after 5/21/2012.
- 1.5 CEU What is a CEU?
Who Should Attend
Explorers and engineers who need to characterize resource potential and chance of success for their investment opportunities in a consistent, calibrated and systematic fashion.
By the end of this course, participants should be able to:
- apply fundamental concepts of statistical description and analysis to geologic trend data;
- deal with the inherent uncertainty on prospect characterizations using those statistical descriptions;
- estimate the volumetric parameters that lead to the resource potential of a prospect, given success;
- estimate the chance parameters related to the petroleum system that lead to the probability of various success states;
- apply an internally consistent set of reality checks to those estimates;
- understand how the post well appraisals in exploration lead to the calibration for better estimating in future prospects;
- communicate in a more disciplined fashion about prospect potential and concerns.
This course focuses on the first two days of our flagship five day course on Exploration Risk Analysis, primarily on the geotechnical concepts and principles of estimating under uncertainty, especially as related to the measurement of and communication about your prospects. We make use of (1) realistic games and exercises to illustrate principles and mechanics of estimating methods; and (2) analytical procedures involved with uncertainty and risk associated with modern petroleum exploration. The course identifies fallacies and unintended consequences of many corporate procedures for conducting petroleum exploration, and shows explorers how to get better at what they do. Due to time limitations, there are no integrative exercises.