Quantification of Geological Risk

22-24 September 2014
Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

Taught in a three (3) day format, this course focuses on the concepts and principles of statistics as it applies to the petroleum system, estimation under uncertainty, EUR assessment given success, and chance of success for prospects. During this course, an integrated team exercise is available, as well as sections on performance tracking and value of information.

This course focuses primarily on the geotechnical concepts and principles of estimating under uncertainty, especially as related to the measurement of and communication about your prospects. We make use of (1) realistic games and exercises to illustrate principles and mechanics of estimating methods; and (2) analytical procedures involved with uncertainty and risk associated with modern petroleum exploration. The course identifies fallacies and unintended consequences of many corporate procedures for conducting petroleum exploration, and shows explorers how to get better at what they do.

Course Outline
Day 1:
  • Introduction
  • Statistics
  • Dealing with Uncertainty
Day 2:
  • Estimating Ultimate Recovery
  • Chance of Success and Expected Value
  • RMAG Exercise Introduction
Day 3:
  • RMAG Solution
  • Value of Information
  • Play Analysis
  • Portfolio Analysis (focusing on the exercise insights about tradeoffs)
  • Performance Tracking
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel
Calle 113 # 7-65
Bogotá, D.C. 094861
+57 1 6578700
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel

Calle 113 # 7-65
Bogotá, D.C. 094861

Check back soon for room block information.

No refunds for cancellations after August 18, 2014.

Sponsored By:


Vicky Vicky Kroh Registrar, Education Department +1 918 560 2650 +1 918 560 2678
Debbi Debbi Boonstra Education Manager +1 918 560-2630

Comments (0)


What Can I Do?

Short Course 2014 Registration Form
Registration Form
Add Item

Enter Notes:
* You must be logged in to name and customize your collection.
Recommend Recommend
Printable Version Printable Version Email to a friend Email to a friend

See Also: Explorer Emphasis

Independents Find Africa Success
Patience, appetite for risk required Independents Find Africa Success

See Also: Explorer Policy Watch

See Also: Industry Meeting

AAPG Non-endorsement Policy

The American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) does not endorse or recommend any products and services that may be cited, used or discussed in AAPG publications or in presentations at events associated with AAPG.