Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Exploration and Development

25-26 September 2014
  |  
Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Who Should Attend
Engineers and geoscientists involved in Exploration Risk Analysis.
Objectives

Upon completion of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Apply probabilistic approaches to common business desicions
  • Carry risking principles from early appraisal through development of prospect opportunities
  • Link project and resource uncertainty to value in the prospect
  • Assess critical mass in information-gathering...value vs. over-spending
Course Content

In this follow-on segment to the foundational Risk and Uncertainty training of the first part of the week, we will look at the practical application of the principles to decision making and uncertainty management within exploration and the early appraisal, delineation, and development phases of an opportunity. We shall link the uncertainty or probabilistic approach to common business decisions and the creation of decision support for development options.

Specific examples and exercises will be presented dealing with topics such as optimal appraisal well location, Value of Information, and pilot or early production system (EPS) evaluation. We shall move into the production and development context with a section on probabilistic production profile assessment and forecasting… a critical extension of the foundation concepts that will enable attendees to have immediate impact on project decisions, recognize facility and development options, and to offer earth science and engineering support for project decisions, support that will allow decision makers to make optimal choices and create value for your company, and allocate people, time, and capital efficiently.

Topics covered include:
  • Value of Information
  • Value of Control
    • Seismic value
    • EPS decisions
    • Optimal Pilots
    • Appraisal well value
  • Decision Methods
  • Bias identification and mitigation
  • Pain and Regret
  • Time series uncertainty
    • Production profile assessment
    • 10-50-90 Profile creation
    • 10-50-90 aggregated field production forecasting
  • Linking project and resource uncertainty to value
  • Understanding how reliance on statistics and statistical methods might lead wrong answers (every process has limitations and it is good to know what they are before you spend all that money and time)
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel
Calle 113 # 7-65
Bogotá, D.C. 094861
Colombia
+57 1 6578700
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel

Calle 113 # 7-65
Bogotá, D.C. 094861
Colombia

Check back soon for room block information.

$800
Expires on
26 September, 2014
Tuition
40
Limit
1.5
CEU

No refunds for cancellations after August 18, 2014.

 

William William Haskett Decision Strategies, Houston, TX
Vicky Vicky Kroh Registrar, Education Department +1 918 560 2650 +1 918 560 2678
Debbi Debbi Boonstra Education Manager +1 918 560-2630

Comments (0)

 

What Can I Do?

Short Course 2014 Registration Form
Registration Form
Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Exploration and Development Registration Open
Register Online
Add Item

Enter Notes:
 
* You must be logged in to name and customize your collection.
Recommend Recommend
Printable Version Printable Version Email to a friend Email to a friend

See Also: Explorer Article

Discoveries Made It a Year to Remember
Exploration highlights for 2013 Discoveries Made It a Year to Remember

See Also: Explorer Division Column DPA

See Also: Explorer Historical Highlight

A Gusher at Baba Gurgur
Nightmare, or vindication? A Gusher at Baba Gurgur

See Also: Explorer President’s Column

See Also: Explorer Regions and Sections

AAPG Non-endorsement Policy

The American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) does not endorse or recommend any products and services that may be cited, used or discussed in AAPG publications or in presentations at events associated with AAPG.