Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Exploration and Development

25-26 September 2014
Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Who Should Attend
Engineers and geoscientists involved in Exploration Risk Analysis.

Upon completion of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Apply probabilistic approaches to common business desicions
  • Carry risking principles from early appraisal through development of prospect opportunities
  • Link project and resource uncertainty to value in the prospect
  • Assess critical mass in information-gathering...value vs. over-spending
Course Content

In this follow-on segment to the foundational Risk and Uncertainty training of the first part of the week, we will look at the practical application of the principles to decision making and uncertainty management within exploration and the early appraisal, delineation, and development phases of an opportunity. We shall link the uncertainty or probabilistic approach to common business decisions and the creation of decision support for development options.

Specific examples and exercises will be presented dealing with topics such as optimal appraisal well location, Value of Information, and pilot or early production system (EPS) evaluation. We shall move into the production and development context with a section on probabilistic production profile assessment and forecasting… a critical extension of the foundation concepts that will enable attendees to have immediate impact on project decisions, recognize facility and development options, and to offer earth science and engineering support for project decisions, support that will allow decision makers to make optimal choices and create value for your company, and allocate people, time, and capital efficiently.

Topics covered include:
  • Value of Information
  • Value of Control
    • Seismic value
    • EPS decisions
    • Optimal Pilots
    • Appraisal well value
  • Decision Methods
  • Bias identification and mitigation
  • Pain and Regret
  • Time series uncertainty
    • Production profile assessment
    • 10-50-90 Profile creation
    • 10-50-90 aggregated field production forecasting
  • Linking project and resource uncertainty to value
  • Understanding how reliance on statistics and statistical methods might lead wrong answers (every process has limitations and it is good to know what they are before you spend all that money and time)
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel
Calle 113 # 7-65
Bogotá, D.C. 094861
+57 1 6578700
Radisson Royal Bogotá Hotel

Calle 113 # 7-65
Bogotá, D.C. 094861

Check back soon for room block information.

Expires on
26 September, 2014

No refunds for cancellations after August 18, 2014.


William William Haskett Decision Strategies, Houston, TX
Vicky Vicky Kroh Registrar, Education Department +1 918 560 2650 +1 918 560 2678
Debbi Debbi Boonstra Education Manager +1 918 560-2630

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