Assessment, Forecasting, and Decision-Making in Unconventional Resource Plays

10-11 November 2014
Houston, Texas, United States
Who Should Attend
This course is targeted towards Earth Scientists, Engineers, Economists, Landmen, and Managers who need to evaluate, plan and make decisions with regard to unconventional resource assessment, testing, and development program planning. Since this course goes well beyond tactical number-crunching into analysis, decisions, strategy, and portfolio management principles, a rudimentary understanding of risk analysis, including ranged or probabilistic input will be assumed.

Upon completion of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Develop methods for valid resource assessment
  • Distinguish recovery from matrix and sorbed components
  • Understand and apply liquids rich resource estimation methods
  • Assess and work with production uncertainty
  • Compare and contrast production profiles and apply them in decision-making
  • Understand stochastic multi-phase flow forecasting
  • Use field size and well data to predict field results
  • Understand unconventional assessment within a decision context
Course Content

This course is oriented towards the recognition and characterization of uncertainty in unconventional reservoirs. Starting with resource/reservoir assessment methods, it moves through the full unconventional value-chain.  This two-day exercise and example filled workshop provides participants with the techniques and reasoning needed to validly assess the merits of the search for, and development of, unconventional resource plays. In addition to basic evaluation of opportunities and reservoir production uncertainty, it highlights the major decision points and strategic options available to companies to increase the probability of profitable results, while identifying and limiting downside risk. The unconventional reservoir discussion is centered on tight gas sands, shale gas, with special attention given to liquids multi-phase flow.

In addition to the theory of resource and type-curve estimation, probabilistic methods and practical models are provided (to be retained by the course participants). No additional software will be required apart from Microsoft Excel.

Traditional application of volumetric chance and uncertainty must be modified to provide a valid assessment of the range of resource and flow potential unconventional assets. A primary difference between standard and unconventional assessment is the reduction of dependence on volumetric uncertainty and the highlighting of valid production profile range creation from base principles. Unconventional Plays are rate based. As such, unconventional play evaluation requires an understanding of production profile uncertainty through time. The valid creation and assessment of type curve distributions, a critical component in the estimation of project NPV, will be covered from an uncertainty context. The creation of P10-P50-P90 curve distributions take more care and attention than most companies are providing.

A prioritized learning plan is critical to the proper validation of the reservoir potential of the opportunity, or the validity of implementing new technology. Understanding how to handle the results from well planned pilots allows the efficient allocation of time, effort, and capital to the pilot phase of a project. This applies equally to the business/value indications as it does to the actual flow data.

Along the way, concepts covered will include the development of EUR Distribution Envelopes, Pilot Effectiveness and Pilot Optimization. These topics/skills combine subsurface resource and stimulation uncertainty to provide insight on performance learning and the optimal number of pilot wells and pads.

Key Topics discussed and included in exercises will include:

  • Developing methods for valid resources assessment
  • Distinguishing recovery from matrix and sorbed components
  • Liquids rich resource estimation methods
  • Assessing and Working with Production Uncertainty
  • Production Profiles: Comparing and Contrasting Profile Aggregations with Profile Pathways (and applying them appropriately for decision-making)
  • Stochastic multi-phase flow forecasting
  • Field Size Distributions vs. Well Size Distributions – using well data to predict field results
  • Dealing with Imperfect Data and value of information (VoI)
  • Pilot Planning including Optimal Pilot Sizing
  • Unconventional Assessment within a Decision Context
  • Application of principles to workshop case studies

PLEASE NOTE: Participants in this course are strongly encouraged to bring a personal laptop computer for use with the simulations and teamwork exercises. People without computers will still get a lot from the course, but they won't get to take home the tools that we build or those that are used in the exercises. Participants will be supplied with Excel models for exercise and demonstration purposes (Microsoft operating system).

Course notes will be provided in digital format on USB flash drive only, so electronic devices with a USB port are required for all courses. If you do not have access to an electronic device with a USB port, please contact the AAPG Education Dept. for an alternate method to download the digital course notes.

Norris Conference Center - CityCentre, Houston, TX
Norris Conference Center - CityCentre, Houston, TX
816 Town & Country Lane, Suite 210
Houston Texas 77024
United States
(713) 590-0950
50 people
Compare to the Whole Conference Pricing
Expires on
13 November, 2014
Member Tuition
Expires on
13 November, 2014
Nonmember Tuition
Includes refreshments and buffet lunch each day in addition to digital course notes. No refunds for cancellations after 13 October 2014.


William William Haskett Decision Strategies, Houston, TX
Vicky Vicky Kroh Registrar, Education Department +1 918 560 2650 +1 918 560 2678
Debbi Debbi Boonstra Education Manager +1 918 560-2630

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