Assumptions About the Relevant Future

In order to make progress against the 10-15 year Envisioned Future, an organization must constantly anticipate the strategic factors likely to affect its ability to succeed, and to assess the implications of those factors. This process of building foresight about the future assists AAPG in constantly recalibrating its view of the relevant future, a basis upon which to update the strategic plan on an annual basis. The outcome-oriented short-term goals are based on the long-range assumptions identified below. Annual review of the assumptions and their ongoing relation to the short-term goals is an appropriate method of determining and ensuring the ongoing relevance of the strategic plan.

Assumptions

Demographics

1. The industry's professional community will increasingly become global.
2. Career opportunities will continue to be volatile and will affect student interest in entering the profession.
3. The profession's North American workforce will increasingly age.
4. Organization (e.g., government, industry and academic) policies will continue to change in order to encourage women and ethnic minorities to enter and remain in the profession.
5. Ethnic diversity in AAPG will increase as the organization becomes more global.
6. The technical workforce will increasingly be self-employed and will rely on outside resources that are easy and inexpensive to obtain.
7. Younger people are less likely to support association membership and involvement.
8. People will change jobs or careers more often.
9. Internal company training will adjust to market conditions with most being supplied externally.
10. Life expectancy will continue to increase.
11. The number of local professional societies will decrease through attrition and mergers.

Legislation/Regulation

1. Sectors of governments will continue to view the industry negatively.
2. Government-industry relationships will vary from country to country.
3. Many governments will continue to be "crisis motivated" in reacting to the industry which may result in counter-productive energy measures.
4. Special interest groups will increasingly provide one-sided advice to governments on the industry and the information will be interpreted as scientific fact.
5. Geoscientists will continue to be a small voting block.

Global Business/Economic Climate

1. Oil and gas prices will continue to fluctuate but at levels above historical prices of 1990s
2. Gas prices will increasing decouple from oil prices with greater increases in those regions poorly served by local supply.
3. Consuming areas will increasingly diversify their gas sources.
4. There will be increased international partnering by oil and gas companies.
5. There will be increased opportunity for independent oil and gas companies outside of N. America and Europe.
6. Mergers, acquisitions, and consolidation will affect the industry and geopolitics will continue to affect oil and gas prices.
7. Oil and gas demand from the Eastern economies will continue to impact supply.
8. Research by exploration and production companies will continue to decline.
9. Research will be increasingly conducted by universities, government labs, NGOs, consultants, and service companies.
10. Changes in tax policy and investor business models will continue to affect exploration and production in the direction of shorter term perspectives.
11. Availability of water resources will increasingly become an issue.
12. Western management will continue to respond to the volatility of the market by making short-term operational decisions while Eastern firms will focus on longer term strategies.
13. Unconventional and to a lesser extent alternative energy sources will become increasingly important.

Science/Technology

1. Industry will continue to hire preferentially those with skills in new technologies rather than classical geological education alone.
2. The industry will continue to be influenced by cross-over technology coming from other industries.
3. New technologies will increasingly come from small entrepreneurial companies.
4. The speed with which technology becomes outdated will increase.
5. As technology grows, the understanding and application of the fundamentals of the science will decline, leading to an increased demand for generalists who can integrate technology with classical geological science.

Social Values/Politics

1. There will be an increase in environmental awareness and responsibility.
2. Oil and gas will continue to be essential energy resources for productive economies worldwide.
3. There will be increased consumption of oil and gas in developing countries.
4. Political instability and terrorism will continue.
5. Oil and gas prices will continue to be major factors affecting world economies.
6. Unproved but perceived anthropogenic contributions to climate change will necessitate response in the energy industry.
7. Government regulation of the energy industry will increase globally.
8. Governments will look to the energy industry for increased revenue.
9. Globalization of membership will tend to lead to a relative decrease in contributions of volunteer time and money.
10. In the U.S., the concentration of petroleum geoscientists in the Houston area will persist.